Humble Opinions

Today, Israel and Jordan celebrate 15 years of official peace between them. I think analyzing the history, and circumstances of this peace reveals a lot of insight into the general situation in the Middle East, and also shows how overall peace in the region could be obtained. Also, this morning, Israel told the UN it would continue gathering intelligence in Lebanon as long as the Lebanese government was not in full control of its country, after the UN questioned Israel about potential wire tapping machinery discovered in Southern Lebanon the other day. I think these two things can be related in an interesting way. Let’s see how much smarter we can get:

On October 26, 1994, Israeli Prime Minister Rabin and Jordanian Prime Minister Abdelsalam al-Majali signed a peace treaty that ended almost 50 years of warring between the two countries. The main points of the treaty were that the two governments agreed on (1) Official borders between their two countries, (2) Normalization of relations (opening of embassies, granting of tourist visas), and (3) Respect of sovereignty and territories. What caused this, and what took so long?

Since the founding of the State of Israel in 1948, Jordan consistently subscribed to an anti-Israel policy, and participated in multiple attempts to destroy it. They did so especially in the Israeli War of Independence (1948), and Six Day War (1967), however the entire time the Jordanians controlled East Jerusalem (1948 - 1967), they made it exceeding difficult for Jews to live in Jerusalem. They would snipe at Jewish mothers shopping for their families, and would pour garbage onto those who came to worship at the Western Wall, among other things. So if Jordan was not down for having Jewish neighbors, then why the peace treaty?

I believe Jordan agreed to peace for a few reasons. The first is that their anti-Israel position was costing them bigtime. For starters, they kept losing wars. Particularly during the Six Day War, Israel sent a message to the Jordanian government on the morning the war broke out, and told them Israel would not attack them if they stayed out of the war. Instead, Jordan decided to try and capture West Jerusalem, and failed miserably. Israel not only stopped them, but was forced to take over East Jerusalem, causing many Jordanians to flee. This also gave Israel complete control over the Western Wall. Was that worth it?

Additionally, Israel consistently offered the possibilities of trade between the two countries, as well as other forms of economic development that the Jordanians simply refused to acknowledge. But things changed during the 70s and 80s. In 1970, Jordan waged the war of Black September against the PLO who were based in Jordan at the time. In response, Syrian troops entered Jordan to fight on behalf of the PLO. In an attempt to try and contain the situation, Israel flew fighter planes over Syrian airspace, to indicate they should stop - and they did. In the 1973 Yom Kippur war, Jordan did not participate in the joint surprise Egyptian-Syrian attack on Israel, perhaps indicating they had learned their lesson.

Eventually, Jordan caved. They realized they could not beat Israel militarily, and that they were losing out by not embracing a relationship with Israel where both countries could capitalize on economic opportunities, and could benefit from the sharing of certain intelligence. So what does this have to do with what Israel said about Lebanon?

Last week, the Lebanese military uncovered machinery buried underground in Southern Lebanon. Upon their discoveries, the machines were immediately blown up, seemingly remotely by Israel. The general theory is that during the 2006 Second Lebanon War, Israel planted wire tapping devices in the ground, to keep a good eye on the Iranian backed terrorist organization, Hezbollah. When confronted about it by the UN, Israel did not confirm or deny it had planted anything in Lebanon, but told the UN it would continue gathering intelligence there while Hezbollah still controlled part of Lebanon.

The underlying theme, as it seems to me, is that Israel does what it needs to in order to ensure its own security and defense capabilities. As soon as it is no longer threatened by one of its enemies, Israel is more than happy to embrace a two-way relationship with them. Israel did not only not hold a grudge against Jordan for the previous 50 years, but also did not hesitate to sign a peace treaty with even Egypt, who tried MUCH harder than Jordan to destroy Israel. Meaning, if the Middle East would finally recognize a tiny Jewish state in their midst, and decided to work with them instead of against them, all countries would benefit. Perhaps the 21st century could finally be the one where the Jewish nation for the first time doesn’t have an attempt made for its complete destruction? Maybe? But then again, Iran’s nuclear program is probably for peaceful purposes.

P.S. If you think Israel is going to sit back and let Iran school the world while obtaining a nuclear weapon, you gotta be out your mind. Crack a history book.

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