The Future is Now
December 5th 2008 03:31 pm
The future is now… well, almost now. I believe mankind, and the world at large, is on the fringes of a new era. Although I wish I had something more positive to report, I think we are about to begin an era that will later be seen as the Age of Terrorism. I have many reasons for believing this, but I also believe there is a chance to alter this.
The human (and especially American) psyche is often times led to trust that the countries of the world have boundaries, and limits to what they can/will do - especially in warfare. Thus, although the New York Times reports stabbings and rapes daily, people still believe their world has relative safety. I should note that I am talking about America for the last 40 or 50 years. In the 19th, and early 20th centuries, people knew the world was not safe (at least to an extent far greater than today). It’s a relatively new phenomenon for people to think they can simply live their entire lives going to work, vacationing, relaxing, and watching television. It has worked for a bit more than a full generation.
The factors that cause this are many. The world has an international organization called The Red Cross, who seeks to enforce and monitor the upkeep of the clauses in the Geneva Conventions. We have an arms agreement called the Chemical Weapons Convention, which clearly outlines what is not acceptable during warfare in terms of weaponry. We have the United Nations, whose aim is to facilitate cooperation in international law, security, human rights, and world peace. We have embassies, diplomats, secretaries of state and defense, etc. Seems pretty solid, right?
The facts:
I wish I didn’t have to be so blunt about these, but here goes:
The Chemical Weapons Convention (signed in 1993, during Bill Clinton’s presidency) is nonsense. It is the modern addition to another document called the Hague Convention (signed in 1899 and re-signed in 1907), which already depicts what is considered a war crime, and declares chemical and biological weapons to be off-limits during war. Did that stop the German Keiser Willhelm II from releasing poison gas on the British and French armies in WWI during the battles of Ypres in 1915? Did that stop America from dropping 2 atom bombs on Japan in 1945? Has that ever stopped an Islamic fundamentalist from blowing up and torturing innocent civilians? No. Rules are rules, until the circumstances require breaking the rules, or unless one doesn’t care about the rules. So effectively, there are no rules.
The United Nations is a joke. It was formed after WWII, to ensure the senseless bloodbath that took place would never again. It replaced the League of Nations, which was setup after WWI, essentially to prevent WWII. Did it? No. Will the United Nations prevent WWIII? Yeah right. The United Nations has passed over 1800 resolutions since its inception, over 7% of them being directed at Israel, one of the smallest of the 192 member countries. UN resolutions are ignored and broken at will, and UN peacekeeping forces have proven ineffective, and for the most part, a waste of time. I need not give you a list of UN resolutions that have simply been ignored (especially in the Middle East), but just know it is quite a lot. Did the UN prevent the 8 year Iran-Iraq war that broke out in 1980? The Korean War? The Soviet-Afghan War? Will the UN have any influence on the tensions currently rising between Pakistan and India? Clearly not… only, this time, both of those countries are nuclear-armed.
If you read what politicians were saying in the months and years preceding WWI, they were toting a concept known as Total Mutual Annihilation, which basically theorized that since weaponry was so advanced by 1914, that in itself guaranteed no possibility of serious war, because it would completely devastate victor and vanquished alike. Today, that concept has been recreated and is called MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction), which states that nuclear war is simply not possible, because it would destroy both sides beyond their abilities to recoup. I’m sure this has been a major consideration of Ayatollah Khomeini and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad throughout their construction of Iran’s first nuclear weapon.
It would be pretty naive to not realize it will only be a matter of time until nuclear weapons become easy to assemble (relative to how difficult the task is right now - which is still FAR easier than it was in the 1930s). My estimate is that in less than 20 - 25 years, most countries on earth will possess nuclear weapons. Can leaders be trusted to not press the button? History has shown no.
In my commutes to work for the last 6 weeks, the subways of NYC have been flooded with police officers, usually in groups of 2 or 3. This is a good sign! The only problem is that I tend to see them chit chatting it up amongst themselves, and generally not prepared for spontaneous action. If these were Israeli-trained policemen, they would be keenly watching all that passed through the subways. (yeah, Israel rules)
Causes? Preventions?
My humble and correct opinion about how to prevent the potential disasters ahead of us lie in an energy revolution. I think our best shot of at least postponing the Age of Terrorism is for America and the world to place kicking mankind’s addiction to oil at priority #1. I believe one of the biggest disasters of the 20th century (obviously aside from WWI and II) was the discovery of 40% of the world’s oil reserves in Saudi Arabia in March 1938. This essentially gave radicals still stuck in the Middle Ages more money than they would ever be able to spend, and more influence than they were prepared to absorb. One would think that the Arab countries should have incredibly high qualities of life for its citizens, given their trillions of oil dollars. The lowest infant mortality rates, the longest life expectancies, the highest rates of literacy. Unfortunately, much of this money has not been spent in that manner. The highest quality of Arab life in the Middle East remains to be that of the Palestinians living in the West Bank under Israeli control (keep in mind Israel possesses zero oil, having given its massive oil reserves in the Sinai desert to Egypt in 1979 in exchange for peace).
An enormous amount of terrorism in the world is fueled by the fact that oil powers almost every aspect of our modern lives. As I said, this has given the Arab nations that comprise OPEC literally an endless budget. I think stemming this tide is our last possible chance of averting disaster… yet, in time honored fashion, no one seems to be doing anything about the situation. Awesome.
I really hope I’m wrong about everything I’ve said, but taking into account my exceptional rate of correctness, that seems unlikely (at least to me).
